When is Analyzing a Hand become Over-Analysis

If I had my choice, I’d much rather analyze a hand too much than to never do much analysis at all.  However, I hate when I know I’ve read too much into a hand and screwed myself out of more chips I could’ve had, or worse yet, talked myself into folding.

The other day, I was playing in the middle stages of an [[Poker_tournament|online tournament]] and sitting in middle position during a hand.  The blinds for the hand were 100-200 and I had a chip stack of 8,000.  After the hand was dealt, the first player to act raised the big blind making me think that this person had a big-time hand since they raised in first position.  However, I was sitting in middle position with pocket 10’s and, out of pure conventional poker strategy (and the need to build by dwindling chip stack), decided to call this raise after everyone folded to me.

The player on the button was the only other person to call and then the flop was dealt.  It came up: As, Kh, 10s and the first player to act bet out.  Seeing as how I had just flopped a set, I raised this bet which made the person on the button fold.  Despite my initial thinking that the first player to act had to have either A-A, K-K, Q-Q, or J-J to be betting and raising from this position, I decided that raising the bet was a must with trips.  

Unfortunately, I began to regret my decision as the first player to act re-raised me which almost had me convinced they had either A-A, or K-K.  But not letting the set go, I called their raise and the turn came up 7d which made the board: As, Kh, 10s, 7d.  Once again, the first player bet out and I simply limped in with a call leaving the river to be shown. 

The river came was shown to be nothing more than an 8c and the first player to act again bet out.  And yet again, I limped in which many people advise against but I was in a gray area at this point.  Should I let the trips go and fold just because I was convinced this person had them too or should I keep potentially wasting bets out of the hope that this person only had a pair or two-pair (I hadn’t been at the table long enough to know what kind of player this was)?  My choice was the second and it was time for the showdown.

Somewhat to my surprise, the first player only showed a pair of queens which meant my set of 10’s did the job and I collected the pot.  This person definitely was right to bet out and raise with Q’s early on and definitely was determined to keep up with this trend. 

I could’ve gotten a lot more into the pot than I did but failed to do so because of my analysis of the situation.  Maybe next time I flop a set, I won’t over think it so much. 

 

 

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